Area Forecast Discussion

FROM: NWS SJT
AREA: NWS SJT County Warning Area
SENT: 2026-07-28T16:39:00+00:00

Area Forecast Discussion: NWS SJT

000
FXUS64 KSJT 281639
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1139 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

…New AVIATION…

.KEY MESSAGES…

– Hot and dry conditions continue through the end of the week.

– Forecast afternoon highs and heat indices could potentially
reach heat advisory criteria across northern portions of the
area Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM…
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

High pressure continues to dominate the region and yield hot and
dry conditions across West Central Texas through the short term.
Expect afternoon high temperatures to reach into the mid 90s to
around 103 degrees today, with the hottest temperatures across
portions of the Big Country and Western Concho Valley. Given the
slightly drier conditions, it does not look like Heat Index
values (how hot it feels) will reach high enough to warrant a
heat advisories today. Overnight low temperatures will fall back
into the 70s tonight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM…
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The seemingly never-ending hot and dry conditions will continue
through Friday due to a persistent upper-level ridge over the Desert
Southwest and west Texas. This ridge has 500mb heights of 594dam
and 850mb temperatures of 23 to 26 deg C. These conditions, combined
with southerly winds and mostly sunny skies, should result in high
temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. The highest mid-level
heights will be located over northwest Texas and the Big Country.
There is a medium (40-70%) chance of temperatures reaching 105
degrees or higher, which would meet heat advisory criteria.

The upper-level pattern looks to shift slightly for this weekend
through Monday. Models are in good agreement of a strong trough
dropping down from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Mississippi Valley
by Saturday morning. This feature should force the ridge westward
and push a weak cold front southward through Texas by Sunday.
Earlier deterministic runs hinted at some light rain chances for
west central Texas with this front, but more recent runs and the
long-range ensemble means have largely backed off on this. While
heights should lower a bit, temperatures should only be a few
degrees cooler for Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION…
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions will persist across the area the next 24 hours.
Winds will remain light through much of the period but occasional
gusts near 20 knots are possible this afternoon, primarily at
KSJT and KABI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS…
Abilene 77 99 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 74 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 72 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
Brownwood 74 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
Sweetwater 76 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
Ozona 73 95 74 96 / 0 0 0 0
Brady 73 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM…TP
LONG TERM….SK
AVIATION…24

Alert Expiration: 2026-07-29T00:39:00+00:00