FROM: NWS LMK
AREA: NWS LMK County Warning Area
SENT: 2026-07-29T05:12:00+00:00
Area Forecast Discussion: NWS LMK
000
FXUS63 KLMK 290512
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
112 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026
…Updated Aviation Discussion…
.KEY MESSAGES…
* Patchy fog will be possible early Wednesday morning.
* Dry and slightly cooler through mid to late week. Rain and
thunderstorm chances increase this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE…
Issued at 903 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026
The cold front has exited Kentucky to the south at this hour. Dew
points have dropped, which is bringing some relief to the hot and
humid conditions from today. Patchy fog will be possible early
Wednesday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/…
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026
The relief from this most recent round of heat and oppressive
humidity is finally here as a cold front extending from a NE CONUS
surface low is moving southward over central Kentucky. The change in
conditions will not be immediate this afternoon and evening as
places behind the front are still experiencing dew points in the
mid-to-upper 70s and heat indices in the upper 90s/low 100s. Dew
points will slowly lower into the 60s this evening and tonight,
with overnight temperatures following suit with low in the mid-to-
upper 60s.
A few showers and an isolated storm have developed along the cold
front near and east of I-75, and will move southward with the front.
Wile there is ample instability out ahead of the front (MLCAPE >
2000 J/kg), the wind shear profile is not very favorable with the
core of the low and mid-level jet further eastward in eastern
Kentucky. A few additional showers and a storm or two can still
develop later this afternoon and evening, but the concern for strong-
to-severe storms is very low for us.
Surface high pressure will build in over the Midwest and Ohio Valley
starting tonight, lasting through the end of the workweek. Surface
winds will quickly decrease this evening, remaining fairly calm and
out of the north through Thursday. With the calm winds in place
tonight, there is the potential for light patchy fog to develop,
especially east of I-65. The surface high will also keep us dry,
making for a nice stretch of weather over the next few days.
Afternoon highs will be around the low-to-mid 80s Wednesday and
Thursday, with temperatures climbing slightly higher into the mid-to-
upper 80s on Friday. Overnight temperatures, especially Wednesday
and Thursday night, will be pleasant with lows in the low 60s and
some isolated locations in the upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/…
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026
A shortwave trough moving over the western/central CONUS upper ridge
makes its way towards our region from the northwest by Friday night.
The upper ridge becomes more amplified while the shortwave
trough/eastern CONUS upper trough becomes closed off over the
Midwest/Ohio Valley. This feature will linger through the remainder
of the forecast period, providing increasing chances for showers and
some thunderstorms. Rainfall from this system will be modest, with
LREF precipitation accumulations from Friday night through Tuesday
currently are in the 0.9-1.3″ range. Cloud cover from the low should
keep temperatures slightly below average to start August, with
afternoon highs slowly increasing from the low 80s on Saturday to
the mid-to-upper 80s on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/…
Issued at 112 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026
VFR conditions are likely throughout much of this TAF period. Patchy
fog is expected 08-12Z Wednesday, which appears most likely to
impact HNB and RGA with brief IFR/MVFR conditions. Brief fog is also
possible at BWG and LEX, but confidence is a bit lower at those
terminals. A light 5 kt northerly wind is expected through the
period, with winds briefly increasing to 6-10 kts this afternoon
during peak mixing. SCT cu between 3-5 kft will also be possible
this afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
KY…None.
IN…None.
&&
$$
UPDATE…SRW
SHORT TERM…BEN
LONG TERM…BEN
AVIATION…EBW
Alert Expiration: 2026-07-29T13:12:00+00:00
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