FROM: NWS BMX
AREA: NWS BMX County Warning Area
SENT: 2026-07-28T11:22:00+00:00
Area Forecast Discussion: NWS BMX
000
FXUS64 KBMX 281122
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
622 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
…New AVIATION…
.KEY MESSAGES…
Issued at 612 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
– Heat: A major heat risk is expected today across Central
Alabama, with maximum heat indices from 105 to 109 degrees.
– Severe Weather: There is a 1 out of 5 risk for severe
thunderstorms across the far northeastern portions of Central
Alabama this Tuesday evening and again on Wednesday afternoon
and evening across the southeast counties. The main threat will
be damaging straight-line winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION…
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
Water vapor imagery this evening reveals a strengthening upper
level ridge across the Four Corners region and an upper trough
pushing through the Great Lakes region. Several shortwaves will
rotate around the periphery of the high, which will keep low to
medium chances for showers and storms in the forecast. Tuesday’s
activity looks to remain east of the region as the ridge shifts
slightly east across the Southern Plains. By mid-week, the ridge
begins to retreat south and west as the trough along the East
Coast deepens and pushes a front through the region. This will
allow the aforementioned shortwaves to inch closer to the region,
bringing better chances for showers and storms, generally to the
south of the front, through Thursday. Another upper trough cuts
across the Plains into the Ohio Valley over the weekend. This will
send a front our way, leading to increased rain chances over the
weekend.
The main story over the next couple of days will be our
increasing heat risk. Temps in the upper 90s along with muggy
conditions will warrant a major heat risk across most of the
region Tuesday with heat indices approaching 110 degrees. The
latest ECMWF EFI hints at an unusually warm day tomorrow,
especially across the southern half of the CWA. Highs tomorrow
will be about 10 degrees warmer than usual for this time of the
year. As a result, the Heat Advisory remains in effect through
Tuesday evening. We will knock off a couple of degrees by mid
week as the ridge retreats back west. High temps look to settle
into the upper 80s to low 90s by Friday.
95/Castillo
&&
.AVIATION…
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
Patchy fog, scattered MVFR, are currently noted across Central
Alabama TAF sites thanks to moist conditions after recent rains.
VSBYs should improve to VFR by 13-14z with mixing. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected with WNW winds during the day 5-10kts.
Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.
08
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
A warm and humid air mass will help fire weather concerns in
check for the week. MinRH values are expected to remain above
50 percent through Wednesday. Some drier air begins to work in
from the east on Thursday and Friday with RHs dropping to around
40%. However, winds will be light enough to negate any fire
weather concerns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS…
Gadsden 96 75 91 67 / 0 10 30 0
Anniston 95 75 90 68 / 0 10 30 0
Birmingham 98 77 92 70 / 0 10 30 0
Tuscaloosa 99 78 94 73 / 0 0 40 10
Calera 100 77 95 71 / 0 0 30 10
Auburn 95 78 92 73 / 0 0 30 10
Montgomery 99 78 96 73 / 0 0 30 20
Troy 97 77 96 72 / 0 0 30 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Chilton-Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-
Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-
Perry-Pickens-Shelby-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Etowah-Lee-Macon-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION…95/Castillo
AVIATION…08
Alert Expiration: 2026-07-28T19:22:00+00:00
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